The Bush Second Term--Predictions!

With Colin Powell leaving and President Bush calling for Dr. Rice, we will see changes in foreign policy, but what else will happen in Bush's second term. Here are some predictions:

1. The number one issue for Republicans in my survey was the support for continuing the war on terrorism and the war for freedom in Iraq. You can expect that Bush will be working hard to support the fledgling governments in Afghanistan and Iraq. He will work to depend more and more on Iraqi troops.

2. Bush is big on the ownership society and will work to provide Social Security changes to allow some limited privatization. There is little support beyond that, but expect citizens will gradually be given the choice to have a modified thrift plan like government employees which allow them to put more into savings.

3. Health care is a growing problem and the Republicans will have to deal with it. If he really values the ownership society he will move to having citizens own their policy instead of giving that to corporations who are no longer loyal. Expect major medical coverage options with medical savings accounts.

4. He will move to make the tax relief plan permanent and not own up to the fact that in doing so the rich will end up paying more of the income tax after the tax relief plan than before. Fourteen million more Americans now pay no income tax and those with lower income had a higher percentage decrease. The end result his base is paying more of the load.

5. Bush will move for tort reform and limits on pain and suffering judgments. He will win that fight but may have to settle for a higher minimum than desired. There are too many lawyers on both sides of the isle to get all he wants.

6. You can expect more appointments of conservative judges at the Appeals Court level and the Supreme Court. The 55 Senators will minimize the power of the vocal Republican moderates but it will not be easy. Bush will appoint blacks and Hispanics that support a strict interpretation of the Constitution to make approval more likely.

7. Fears of Roe vs. Wade reversals will cause Democrats to initiate state initiative to prepare for that. Bush has said there is little consensus support for making abortion illegal. Expect continued pressure to introduce more limits--parental notification, 24-HR wait, etc.

8. Most of the red states have no desire to legislate the morality of others, but they fear the reverse. When they see a San Francisco mayor and a Massachusetts judge change the definition of marriage while disregarding the will of the people, they are stirred to action. They are not into changing others; they are into holding on to what they value about America. Religious conservatives will want more; but they will not have the power to get it. Expect affirmation of marriage and little progress on gay marriage. Expect states will endorse more civic unions but not label it marriage.

9. Expect reluctance to go into other countries in military interventions. Other countries are more likely to work with the US to avoid such actions. They now have to deal with Bush and will not want to be left out. Bush has paid a price for Iraq; he will be reluctant to do that again.

10. Bush will try to reach out to involve Democrats but the partisan distrust will make progress difficult. Unity means moderate change to Democrats. Unity means caring enough to listen and use what common ground can be found for Bush. The cooperation may be short-lived with both sides blaming the other for not really wanting unity.

11. Bush will be focused but not as extreme as feared. When Democratic executives have total control of congress they had to show restraint or risk big mid-term losses because of going too far. Americans tend to vote gridlock--Give congress to one party and the executive to the other. This is an opportunity and a risk for the Republicans to have both. He will focus on what he says he will focus on....few surprises.

12. Bush does not have to be reelected. He will use the veto in his second administration. As the economy improves, he will say no to some federal spending to avoid deeper deficits.

Give me your predictions or react to mine!

The Red States and the Blue States--Why so different?

After the election, I've been asked by reporters and interviewers to comment on the political divide in America. As a conservative psychologist from CA with a masters degree in theology and with roots in the Midwest, I have some perspectives worth sharing about the differences between the red and the blue states in America:

In the red states, being actively involved with one's church is not just one of many options; it is the center of the community. The values supported in those faith communities are strong and resist change. There are believers in the blue areas, but church gives way to sports leagues and competing priorities. In urban areas, families are lucky to eat together, much less pray together. As a result, the secular culture impacts them every day from every angle.

Red states have more "corny" people--these Americans actually believe in values like duty, courage, patriotism, faith, and freedom. The blue states see such values as provincial and simplistic. They also have values but their interaction with diversity of faith and race causes them to value tolerance, resist judgments, and to question blind patriotism. Both consider the other America dangerous!

To people in the blue states having young kids work is abuse. In the red states, a three-your-old on the farm is earning their keep by feeding the chickens every day. The blue states describe caring as having government programs. The blue states define caring as coming together as a community to give short-term help but caring enough to encourage self-reliance and keep the government out of their lives.

The blue states fear that the red states want to legislate the morality of others, but it is the blue states that have been pushing their values onto America before it is ready. When they see a San Francisco mayor and a Massachusetts judge change the definition of marriage while disregarding the will of the people they are supposed to represent, they were stirred to action in this election. They are not into controlling what happens in peoples' bedrooms; they are into holding on to the value that have made America what it is.

There are some in both the red and the blue states want the others to leave! Unfortunately, what makes America work is the tension between change and tradition. The trick is to find the truth in the middle of that tension. Every improvement is the result of change. Not every change is an improvement. The past has value but it shouldn't have an automatic veto. The trick is valuing both and to keep talking across our divide.

We have exchange students from foreign countries to build understanding. It might be wise for Americans to have "exchange students" between the red and blue states. My parents shipped us off from the city to work on the farms of Illinois. I saw what work was like; it made me want to go to college!

Most "blues" and "reds" never meet. We talk about them instead of to them. We watch programs that support our perceptions; we go to dinner with people who agree with us. It's time to do a little listening across our differences. We could both learn something from each other.

A Letter to Bush

Victory is ours! The thought of Kerry leading...or shall I say...polling his way through four years was a nightmare to me. Thank goodness the wait is over and Bush has four more years to move his agenda forward.

I write the President every month. I thought I would share my most recent letter to him. I hope you may be encouraged to write your own:

Good Morning Mr. President!

There is only one word that describes my feeling after the roller coaster events of this election—Relief! Thank God that America is still in good hands—YOUR HANDS! Your vision, your resolve and your leadership have earned the trust of most Americans—enough to win the popular and the electoral votes! Win or lose my wife and I are proud of having worked for months on your re-election. It makes it all worth it—the book I wrote, the website, the e-zines, the precinct walks, the calls and the speaking to Republican and civic groups.

It does not stop now! With so many energized by this election, it is time to keep educating the electorate on what is at stake in moving forward with peace and freedom in the Middle East, with the economic recovery and with the “ownership society” that promises the American Dream for more and more Americans. We commit to continue to work to inform and inspire your faithful and convince many of those Democrats who are really Republicans to join our cause.

I support your call for unity in America. None of us must gloat; we must support you in governing this fine land for a future we can all be proud of. Unity does not mean conceding on principles or policies, but on building consensus where differences are aired and responded to.

The "good guys" of the world are also encouraged. America is not retreating; we are advancing in Liberty’s Century. This was a “Values Victory,” and you have revitalized the values that we treasure and that have been instrumental in making America strong. I look forward to four more years. We are proud of you and all those who worked for your victory.

Thank you for leading us to victory and never, ever, ever giving up!

In Support and Celebration,


Terry L. Paulson, PhD

Hate and Love Waiting

There is something very painful about now being an observer as we watch the numbers come in. There is nothing one can do. All you know is that nearly half of America is going to be very disappointed. I just hope it will be the Democrats. We wait and wonder...and maybe I will watch a little of the Laker game to give me a stress break...or maybe add to my stress.

Trust Is Key Factor

In court, you are innocent until proven guilty. As an incumbent, you are reelected unless your opponent has proven more trustworthy. When Americans get in the voting booth and have to punch their choice, trust will be a deciding factor. They may not like all the Bush has done, but they know him. Like Truman, he has character and they know that he is grounded and consistent. Kerry lacks a leadership track record, has been inconsistent, and does not past the trust test. He will be defeated on Tuesday. Few are talking about trust, but it is the central factor in this election with the war on terrorism central.

Osama Bin Laden's tape warning America not to stay the course in the war and its support of Israel cannot help but further Bush's cause. He is truly supplying a very unique October surprise. Let's hope his words are not a signal to unleash another attack. For those Michael Moore fans, Bin Laden's admission that he was responsible for 9/11 ends all the conspiracy that Bush was behind it.

All factors involved--my prediction is that Bush wins on Tuesday with at least 52% of the vote.

Kerry Does Well but Bush Wins on Authenticity, Character and Vision

It was a good debate, actually better than most expected. There were no self-inflicted wounds in debate style. Only time will tell whether the positions John Kerry took on the debates will come back to haunt him.

Rightfully, I think both candidates agreed that America has had their fill shrill, biting attacks; they are tired of the abrasive politics. There was a graciousness evident. Both could compliment the other and did not take the invitation to attack the other's character.

Jim Lehrer gets good grades for his fair job of asking questions. Even the lights on the podium were a good idea--providing a structure that seemed to keep the debate moving.

On the positive side, Kerry was articulate, clear, stayed more succinct and on time. His debating skills kicked in. He showed strength and consistency on his position, at least as it now stands. His biggest challenge is keeping happy the breadth of positions he must represent in his constituency. The "get out now" gang cannot be overly happy with their candidate! Of course they know, he is just saying what America wants to hear.

President Bush has been criticized for his sluggish and annoyed delivery. But while watching the debates with another couple, we were pleased with his performance. As a psychologist, give me authentic expressions and straight talk over over-rehearsed slick every time. Bush may not have scored the hits people wanted him to win, but he made authentic emotional connections Kerry doesn't even know how to make! His repetition of key messages about Kerry hit home with us--Kerry had no answer for "Wrong war, wrong place, wrong time!" His resolve to see it through for liberty's sake, his focus on a realistic optimism and support for Iraq. His warmth made an emotional connection Kerry never even attempted; his heartfelt story about his discussion with wife of the dead soldier hit home!

One final note, I love TIVO. It allowed us as couples to stop the debate, react, discuss, share our own feelings and opinions. It was a wonderful evening of discussion. The only thing we lost by slowing down the debate was having to watch all the spinning pundits and campaign activists try to shape how we evaluated the debate. Too bad; we had already decided. Kerry did well as a debater and pleased his faithful, but Bush won the candidate prize--more people will vote for him because he has the character, the resolve and the vision we look for to lead us.

A Script Dan Rather Needs to Use!

There is a reason that Dan Rather is having such a hard time responding to the problems with Document-Gate! He hasn't tried any of his famous Ratherisms to save the day. Here is a script he might want to try:

"Smelling salts please! I'm in a ding-dong, knock-down, get-up fight for my life at CBS. My back is to the wall, my shirt tails on fire and it's getting hotter. This forged documents flap is hotter than a Laredo parking lot, as hot and squalid as a New York elevator in August, hot enough to peel house paint. It's crackling like a hickory fire and even my fingernails are starting to sweat.

Folks, my position is shakier than cafeteria Jell-O. It's cardiac-arrest time!I face the facts! The hate mail about me being sent to CBS are making the executives run like squirrels in a cage. Our ratings drop looks like a hurricane just went through a Florida trailer park.

But you can't really blame me! Like all anchors, I look into the crystal ball to sharpen my political hunch for a great story. Unfortunately, I must admit that after this 60 Minutes program, we're eating so much broken glass that we're in critical condition.

But never forget that to err is human but to really foul up takes an ancient anchor. Now, I did say I was sorry! I admit that it took me a week to see the light. Our sudden drop in our ratings got me standing up like I got stuck with hat pins.

Frankly, I don't know whether to wind the watch or to bark at the moon. But don't hold your breath for a real apology to George Bush; I think you would likelier see a hippopotamus run through this room than see me apologize to George Bush!

Some would say that the odds of me lasting the year are as tight as a too-small bathing suit on a too-long ride home from the beach. It's spandex tight! Ladies and gentlemen, it's as tight as the rusted lug nuts on a '55 Ford.

Then again, some say I ought to retire. I mean, when the going gets weird, anchor men punt! But don't worry about Dan Rather! When it comes to a problem like this, I'm a long distance runner and an all-day hunter. I will be back. No one may be watching, but I will be back!"

Hey, trying this can't be any worse than doing what he has done on his own. He is self-destructing and needs a little guidance. We are here to help!